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国际权力体系的三大类型变迁及对中东的影响

作者:田文林 出版日期:2020年02月 报告页数:51 页 报告大小: 报告字数:49263 字 所属丛书:CNKI 中国学术期刊网络出版总... 所属图书:国别和区域研究(第五卷 2020年...

文章摘要

  

自近代以来,以欧洲为中心的国际权力体系共经历了三次大规模变迁:维也纳体系及一战后确立的凡尔赛—华盛顿体系、二战后确立的雅尔塔体系和冷战格局以及冷战后形成的“一超多强”。每次国际体系变迁都对中东格局产生深远影响。国际体系因素对中东政治的干预程度和方式,大体呈“M形”结构:在中东由少数利益相近的国家共同主导时(如一战后的英法主导和冷战后的美国主导),对中东进行“分而治之”和直接干预的可能性提高;而在势均力敌的两极格局下(如美苏共同主导中东的冷战时期),中东成为双方争夺的“中间地带”,为防止该地区的冲突导致大国迎头相撞,地缘政治格局进入“休眠期”。冷战结束后,大国对中东的直接控制和地缘分裂的局势重新加剧。

Abstract

  

Since the modern times,the international power system centered on Europe has undergone three major changes:the Vienna system and the Versailles-Washington system established after the World War Ⅰ,the Yalta system established after the World War Ⅱ,and the post-Cold War system of “one superpower plus multiple strong powers”.The changes in the international power system have far-reaching influence on the pattern of the Middle East,which exhibits an M-shaped structure in terms of degree and manner of intervention.When the Middle East was led by a small number of countries with similar interests(such as the post-WWI Great Britain and France and the post-Cold War U.S.),the likelihood of “divide and control” and direct intervention was high.In the two-pole pattern such as that during the Cold War,the Middle East became the “middle ground” of the two competing powers,the United States and the Soviet Union.In order to prevent the conflicts in the Middle East from escalating into direct collision of the two big powers,geopolitics was brought into a “period of dormancy”.When the Cold War ended and the United States came to lead the international power system,direct control and geopolitical division of the Middle East have been re-intensified.

作者简介

田文林:田文林 中国现代国际关系研究院研究员,主要研究方向为中东问题及国际战略。