发达经济体货币政策正常化对新兴经济体汇率的影响

Abstract:After the outbreak of the world financial crisis in 2008，the major developed economies have introduced a series of unconventional monetary policy. With the recovery of the major economies，unemployment and inflation are meeting policy objectives，and the major developed economies are starting to normalize the monetary policy，which will have a strong spillover effect to the exchange rate of emerging economies’ currencies in capital flows channel，interest rates channel and exchange rates channel，in the short-term and long-term. The process of normalizing monetary policy will lead to the international capital flow from emerging economies to advanced economies，resulting in lower liquidity and asset prices falling in emerging economies，as well as the appreciation of currencies in developed economies and the devaluation of currencies in emerging economies. In addition，the normalization of monetary policy in the major developed economies has not only promoted short-term interest rate，and it could change investor risk appetite to raise the risk premium，and then push up its medium-and long-term interest rates，not only to increase real exchange rates in advanced economies，but also to increase the debt pressure on emerging economies to withstand the downward pressure on emerging economies’ currencies. In addition，the process of normalizing monetary policy in the major developed economies will force the emerging economies that peg their currencies to similarly tighten monetary policy，putting their currencies under a certain upward pressure，and may even lead to crisis in emerging economies.

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