“一带一路”沿线国家恐怖袭击事件的热点因素分析及预测

Abstract:This report first analyzes the hot factors of terrorist attacks in 40 countries along “the Belt and Road” in 2014-2017 through Lorenz curve model，and then uses the gray prediction model to analyze the possibility of terrorist incidents in Yemen，Philippines，India，Pakistan and Afghanistan in the next three years. The results show that：First，there are 23 hotspot countries along “the Belt and Road”. The hotspots are armed attacks and bombings/explosions. The hot weapon types are light weapons and explosives/bombs/explosives. The hotspot victims are government，military，civil and private property. Second，in the next three years，the probability of terrorist incidents in Yemen and Pakistan is decreasing year by year，and the domestic environment is stabilizing；the possibility of terrorist incidents in the Philippines，India and Afghanistan is increasing，and India’s growth rate is the fastest，indicating that the country’s anti-terrorism situation in the next three years is not optimistic. In response to the above analysis，this report proposes a series of policy recommendations to better safeguard the development of “the Belt and Road”.

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