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巴基斯坦安全形势对中巴经济走廊的影响

作者:〔巴基斯坦〕穆罕默德·纳瓦兹汗 库拉姆·阿巴斯 出版日期:2018年12月 报告页数:11 页 报告大小: 报告字数:14498 字 所属图书:“一带一路”研究(2018年第1期 总第1期) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:自2015年签署中巴经济走廊备忘录以来,中巴之间深厚的友谊已经进入经济深度合作与两国水乳交融的新时代。这是中国首次有意在巴基斯坦进行巨额投资,面临较为复杂的安全环境。中巴经济走廊建设开始一度被许多人解读为大国战略方案,巴基斯坦因而具备了区域经济枢纽的地位。该项目遂成为引发巴基斯坦内外敌对势力焦虑的根源。本文即尝试讨论巴基斯坦政治和安全动态并评估其对中巴经济走廊的影响。本文认为:政治和安全变化不会干扰巴基斯坦与中巴经济走廊相关的活动。少数区... 展开

文章摘要:自2015年签署中巴经济走廊备忘录以来,中巴之间深厚的友谊已经进入经济深度合作与两国水乳交融的新时代。这是中国首次有意在巴基斯坦进行巨额投资,面临较为复杂的安全环境。中巴经济走廊建设开始一度被许多人解读为大国战略方案,巴基斯坦因而具备了区域经济枢纽的地位。该项目遂成为引发巴基斯坦内外敌对势力焦虑的根源。本文即尝试讨论巴基斯坦政治和安全动态并评估其对中巴经济走廊的影响。本文认为:政治和安全变化不会干扰巴基斯坦与中巴经济走廊相关的活动。少数区域政治团体可能会因其政治利益对中巴经济走廊继续持批评态度,跨国恐怖组织和地方民族主义异见者在外部敌对情报机构的支持下也可能会给中巴经济走廊制造安全威胁,但这些挑战都足以应对,并且随着时代的发展会逐渐消失。中巴经济走廊会间接帮助巴基斯坦改善其安全态势,并使其政情走向以经济发展为核心的政治态势。本文亦认为中巴经济走廊建设已经制度化,成为巴基斯坦的举国共识。

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Abstract:The cordial relationship between China and Pakistan had entered into a new era of deep economic cooperation and fruitful integration of two nations,since both countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding(MoU)to build the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)in 2015.This is the first time that China has intended to invest huge capital in Pakistan,hence,various concerns related to politics and security are linked with it.Howev... 展开

Abstract:The cordial relationship between China and Pakistan had entered into a new era of deep economic cooperation and fruitful integration of two nations,since both countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding(MoU)to build the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)in 2015.This is the first time that China has intended to invest huge capital in Pakistan,hence,various concerns related to politics and security are linked with it.However,the construction of the initiative has been explained by many as a strategic moment,in which Pakistan has presumed the position of economic pivot for the whole region.This paradigm change in circumstances is a source of considerable worry for the adversaries of the country both within and outside.In this regard,this paper is an attempt to discuss political and security dynamics of Pakistan,while keeping in view their impact on the CPEC.The study indicates that unlike various concerns,political and security dynamics will not disrupt the CPEC related activities in the country.A few regional political parties will likely to continue their criticism on the CPEC for their political gains and transnational terrorist groups(based in Afghanistan)and sub-nationalist dissidents with the help of hostile foreign intelligence agencies may try to pose security challenge to the CPEC related activities.However,these challenges are manageable and with the passage of time,these voices will dry out.The CPEC has and will indirectly help Pakistan to improve its security situation as well as it might shape political trends of the country towards politics of economic development.The paper also finds that the CPEC has been institutionalized and securitized and it has assumed a position of national consensus.

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作者简介

〔巴基斯坦〕穆罕默德·纳瓦兹汗:穆罕默德·纳瓦兹汗,伊斯兰堡政策研究所(Islamabad Policy Research Institute,IPRI)研究员,研究方向为南亚安全动态、战略问题和地区发展,尤其关注中巴经济走廊、反激进主义

库拉姆·阿巴斯:库拉姆·阿巴斯,博士,国际和平与稳定研究中心(Center for International Peace and Stability,CIPS)学者,也是伊斯兰堡政策研究所研究中东和南亚的研究员,主要研究方向为体制变革策略、民主和非暴力公民抵抗。