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“特朗普时代”美伊关系探析

作者:王国兵 出版日期:2019年01月 报告页数:17 页 报告大小: 报告字数:17347 字 所属丛书:伊朗蓝皮书 所属图书:伊朗发展报告(2017~2018) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:当下的国际社会正处于关键变化时期,存在诸多不确定性与确定性因素,这一特点在美伊关系这对矛盾体上表现得较为彻底。目前,特朗普政府对伊核协议的“不认可”态度加剧了两国关系的紧张状态,引发各方关切。整体来看,美伊关系的发展受诸多确定性因素影响,有历史积怨的累积、国家战略利益的冲突、国内政治的牵绊和特朗普个人因素的加持等主客观条件,但归根结底还是两国关系不正常化的结果。目前,特朗普政府对伊政策尚不明晰,伊朗态度也有所保留,欧盟国家、沙特、以色... 展开

文章摘要:当下的国际社会正处于关键变化时期,存在诸多不确定性与确定性因素,这一特点在美伊关系这对矛盾体上表现得较为彻底。目前,特朗普政府对伊核协议的“不认可”态度加剧了两国关系的紧张状态,引发各方关切。整体来看,美伊关系的发展受诸多确定性因素影响,有历史积怨的累积、国家战略利益的冲突、国内政治的牵绊和特朗普个人因素的加持等主客观条件,但归根结底还是两国关系不正常化的结果。目前,特朗普政府对伊政策尚不明晰,伊朗态度也有所保留,欧盟国家、沙特、以色列等利益攸关方则对伊核协议的态度存在分歧,种种因素又为美伊关系未来发展留下了隐患。总之,短期来看,美伊关系有可能会继续恶化,但应会保持在可控范围之内。

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Abstract:Now the current international community is in a critical period,there are many uncertainties and certainty factors in the relation between the United States and Iran. At present,the Trump administration's “non-recognition” attitude toward the Iranian nuclear agreement has aggravated the tension between the two countries and raised concerns of various countries. On the whole,the development of the U.S.-Iran relationship is affecte... 展开

Abstract:Now the current international community is in a critical period,there are many uncertainties and certainty factors in the relation between the United States and Iran. At present,the Trump administration's “non-recognition” attitude toward the Iranian nuclear agreement has aggravated the tension between the two countries and raised concerns of various countries. On the whole,the development of the U.S.-Iran relationship is affected by many certainty factors,such as the accumulation of historical factors,the conflicts of national strategic interest,the impetus of domestic politics,and the subjective and objective conditions imposed by Trump's personal factors. It is also the result of an abnormal relationship between the two countries. At present,the Trump administration's policy on Iran is not yet clear,and Iran's attitude is also reserved. EU countries,Saudi Arabia,Israel,and other stakeholders are divided on the Iranian nuclear agreement,and various factors have left the future development of the US-Iran relations under the hidden dangers. In short,the U.S.-Iran relation may continue to deteriorate in the short term,but it should remain with on control.

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作者简介

王国兵:王国兵,西北大学中东研究所博士生。