中国金融状况分析与展望（2018～2019）

Abstract:The China-US trade war in 2018 causes abnormal fluctuations in China’s stock market，and increases economic uncertainty，which would endanger financial stability. Existing studies pay little attention to the impact of economic shocks on financial stability and the relationship between financial cycles and economic cycles. The research findings show that China’s finance features a self-sustaining trend. The current downturn has broken the threshold，and forecasts indicate that the downturn trend will continue. Financial shocks do affect financial stability. We should abandon the traditional way of regulating and controlling the financial market through monetary policy，guard against the negative impact of foreign exchange reserve reduction caused by capital outflow on financial stability，and reduce the degree of financial and economic development separation. The short-term effects between financial cycles and economic cycles are mutually constrained，and the long-term effects are mutually restrained，so the efforts should be made to restore the healthy interaction between finance and economy，and to strengthen the coordination between financial and economic cycles.

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