全球大宗商品市场的回望与前瞻：巩固和反弹

Abstract:During the period from August 2016 to July 2017，the commodity price index in terms of current USD and SDR showed the characteristics of fluctuation and consolidation. After a process of rise and fall，the price level remained basically unchanged. However，the price index of agricultural raw materials，ore and metals，and crude oil prices rose by 4.3%，19.1%，and 7.6%respectively，while that of food fell by 9.3%. Due to economic restructuring，excess capacity elimination and declining economic growth，the value of China’s imports of 17 commodities in 2016 was $32.29bn，down by 9.3% from the previous year，accounting for 21.0% of the world’s total imports of these commodities，falling by 0.4% comparing to previous year. From 2017 to 2018，the growth in demand for commodities will be accelerated due to optimistic prospect of global economy，while the supply of commodities will be constrained attributed to insufficient investment，and it is expected that commodity prices will experience rise stably. Commodity price will experience a wave of stable rally in the second half of 2017 and continue to fluctuate upward in 2018. The average price of crude oil in the fourth quarter of 2017 will rise to around $53/barrel，and further rebound to around $57/barrel in 2018.

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