中国宏观经济形势分析与展望

Abstract:China’s economy has been notably on the rise. Comparing with the economic recoveries in last decades，the rebound of this time reflects more on higher price but not production increase. To understand the abnormal economic recovery，this paper elaborates from three perspectives：（1）a positive demand shock revived the economy，（2）policies of cutting overcapacity evolved into cutting production and led to a first shock to the supply curve，（3）the increase of market concentration induced a second shock to the supply curve. All the three factors led to a variation of the relation between output and inflation. These changes happened mainly in mineral and chemical industry，which resulted in industry differentiation in PPI and profits. This kind of industry differentiation deserves close attention.

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