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世界石油市场回顾与展望:反弹和平衡

作者:周伊敏 王永中 出版日期:2018年07月 报告页数:21 页 报告大小: 报告字数:15765 字 所属丛书:世界能源蓝皮书 所属图书:世界能源发展报告(2018) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2017年世界石油市场出现明显回温。石油价格整体呈现先降后升的走势,且在年末上升至自2015年以来的最高价格,而价格均值水平相较于上一年增长了约24%。中国在经济增长背景下,石油需求增加了60万桶/日,增量为上年的两倍,约占世界石油需求增量的40%,成为推动需求增长的重要力量。2018年全球经济增长加速将导致全球石油需求增长加速,但市场供给弹性空间较大,若减产协议提前中断,美国石油供给加速增长,则市场供需局面可能恢复到减产前的状态,石油价格受挫下行,原油... 展开

文章摘要:2017年世界石油市场出现明显回温。石油价格整体呈现先降后升的走势,且在年末上升至自2015年以来的最高价格,而价格均值水平相较于上一年增长了约24%。中国在经济增长背景下,石油需求增加了60万桶/日,增量为上年的两倍,约占世界石油需求增量的40%,成为推动需求增长的重要力量。2018年全球经济增长加速将导致全球石油需求增长加速,但市场供给弹性空间较大,若减产协议提前中断,美国石油供给加速增长,则市场供需局面可能恢复到减产前的状态,石油价格受挫下行,原油价格有可能下跌至50~60美元;若能延续良好的减产执行,则预计可维持2017年联合减产所带来的市场供给收紧局面,油价有望上涨至60~70美元,地缘风险增加,将加剧油价波动,并可能进一步将油价推高至70~90美元。

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Abstract:In 2017,the world oil market has obviously recovered. Overall,oil prices in 2017 showed a trend of falling first and then rising. The price rose to the highest since 2015 by the end of the year. The average level of prices has increased by about 24% compared with the previous year. In the economic growth,China’s oil demand has increased by 600,000 barrels per day,an increase of twice the amount of last year,accounting for about... 展开

Abstract:In 2017,the world oil market has obviously recovered. Overall,oil prices in 2017 showed a trend of falling first and then rising. The price rose to the highest since 2015 by the end of the year. The average level of prices has increased by about 24% compared with the previous year. In the economic growth,China’s oil demand has increased by 600,000 barrels per day,an increase of twice the amount of last year,accounting for about 40% of the world’s oil demand. China has become an important force driving demand growth.The acceleration of global economic growth in 2018 will lead to the acceleration of global oil demand growth,but the market supply flexibility is relatively large. If the output reduction agreement is terminated in advance and the US oil supply accelerates,the market supply and demand situation may return to its pre-production decline:the price of oil will fall,and crude oil prices may fall to 50 to 60 US dollars. If the well implementation of output reduction can continue,it is expected to maintain the tightening of the market supply and demand brought about by the joint production reduction in 2017. The oil price is then expected to rise to 60 to 70 US dollars. With the increased geopolitical risks and oil price volatility,oil prices further may reach 70 to 90 US dollars.

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作者简介

周伊敏:周伊敏,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员。

王永中:王永中,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所世界能源研究室主任、研究员。

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