世界石油市场回顾与展望：反弹和平衡

Abstract:In 2017，the world oil market has obviously recovered. Overall，oil prices in 2017 showed a trend of falling first and then rising. The price rose to the highest since 2015 by the end of the year. The average level of prices has increased by about 24% compared with the previous year. In the economic growth，China’s oil demand has increased by 600，000 barrels per day，an increase of twice the amount of last year，accounting for about 40% of the world’s oil demand. China has become an important force driving demand growth.The acceleration of global economic growth in 2018 will lead to the acceleration of global oil demand growth，but the market supply flexibility is relatively large. If the output reduction agreement is terminated in advance and the US oil supply accelerates，the market supply and demand situation may return to its pre-production decline：the price of oil will fall，and crude oil prices may fall to 50 to 60 US dollars. If the well implementation of output reduction can continue，it is expected to maintain the tightening of the market supply and demand brought about by the joint production reduction in 2017. The oil price is then expected to rise to 60 to 70 US dollars. With the increased geopolitical risks and oil price volatility，oil prices further may reach 70 to 90 US dollars.

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