您好,欢迎来到一带一路数据库!

全库
全文
  • 全文
  • 标题
  • 所属丛书
  • 作者/机构
  • 关键词
  • 主题词
  • 摘要
高级检索

您好,欢迎来到一带一路数据库!

巴西:经济稳步复苏,政经挑战仍存

作者:张勇 出版日期:2018年06月 报告页数:13 页 报告大小: 报告字数:11973 字 所属丛书:拉美黄皮书 所属图书:拉丁美洲和加勒比发展报告(2017~2018) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:自2016年8月31日特梅尔正式就任巴西总统以来,其执政之路并非一帆风顺。进入2017年,身陷腐败丑闻的特梅尔虽然惊险闯过“三关”指控,但是民意支持率也创下了新低。受到私人消费和出口的驱动,巴西经济连续三个季度出现环比增长,经济复苏已成定局,但是中期内仍然受财政压力和政治不确定性的制约。腐败案的持续发酵仍会不断引发政治危机,这也将延缓养老金制度改革的进程。虽然经济增长高于预期,但是连续两年经济衰退造成贫困和失业率反弹,这种状况较难在短期内改善。... 展开

文章摘要:自2016年8月31日特梅尔正式就任巴西总统以来,其执政之路并非一帆风顺。进入2017年,身陷腐败丑闻的特梅尔虽然惊险闯过“三关”指控,但是民意支持率也创下了新低。受到私人消费和出口的驱动,巴西经济连续三个季度出现环比增长,经济复苏已成定局,但是中期内仍然受财政压力和政治不确定性的制约。腐败案的持续发酵仍会不断引发政治危机,这也将延缓养老金制度改革的进程。虽然经济增长高于预期,但是连续两年经济衰退造成贫困和失业率反弹,这种状况较难在短期内改善。在欧美保护主义倾向抬头、全球化进程遭遇波折的背景下,促进对外关系多元化仍然是特梅尔政府的选项。2018年国内政治格局处于大选前的分化与重组的博弈阶段,政治争斗不可避免,而随着卢拉基本丧失参选资格,2018年的大选形势日趋复杂。

收起

Abstract:Since Michel Temer officially became the president of Brazil in 2016,his ruling journey hasn’t been smoothly as expected. In 2017,although Temer weathered corruption allegations,he hit another new low in polls. Driven by private consumption and exports,Brazil’s economy witnessed a stable recovery with three consecutive quarters of growth. But in the medium term,the economic growth has still been constrained by fiscal deficits a... 展开

Abstract:Since Michel Temer officially became the president of Brazil in 2016,his ruling journey hasn’t been smoothly as expected. In 2017,although Temer weathered corruption allegations,he hit another new low in polls. Driven by private consumption and exports,Brazil’s economy witnessed a stable recovery with three consecutive quarters of growth. But in the medium term,the economic growth has still been constrained by fiscal deficits and political uncertainties. Corruption investigations have caused political crises continuously,which will delay the reform of the pension system. The two-year economic recession has resulted in a rebound in poverty and unemployment,which couldn’t be changed easily in the short term. With protectionism revival in the US and Europe and globalization suffering setbacks,promoting the diversification of foreign relations is still a priority for the Temer government. Party politics has entered another round of differentiation and re-organization in the coming 2018 presidential election of Brazil. The political struggle will be inevitable.

收起

作者简介

张勇:张勇,经济学博士,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所经济研究室副研究员,主要研究领域为拉美经济。