“伊斯兰国”对以色列的威胁评估——意识形态、组织活动与社会基础层面的分析

Abstract:As the most threatening international Islamic extremist group，Al-Dawla al-Islamiya fil-Iraq wa al-Sham（commonly translated as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria（ISIS）or the Islamic State（IS）or Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant（ISIL））imposes significant security threats to Israel. On the one hand，there emerging IS supporters among Palestinians both in Israel and in West Bank and Gaza Strip；on the other hand，IS branches and groups emerges in Sinai and Golan Height，from where both Israel military and civic targets may be attacked. Although IS threats to Israel are visible，the threats are not serious. On the one hand，IS lacks of support from Palestinian majorities both in Israel and in West Bank and Gaza，very few Palestinians support IS；on the other hand，the powerful capabilities and timely counterattacks of Israel Defense Forces（IDF）successfully deter the possible attacks from IS militants from both Syria and Sinai in Egypt. Finally after analyzing the strategic aims and ideologies of IS briefly，we conclude that the IS major target is not IS，and the IS threats to Israel are limited.

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