沙特与伊朗在也门内战中的对抗与策略互动——基于博弈论的视角

Abstract:As two traditional powers in the Middle East，the disagreement and confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran is quiet extensive and lasting. For example，the civil war in Yemen is an important competing field between these two states. The paper tries to analyze the strategic interactions between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the Yemen civil war and find out their logics of decision-making based on the “Chicken Game” model. The paper argues that the interaction process between Saudi Arabia and Iran process on the issue of Yemen civil war can be divided into two stages，by the time when Saudi Arabia announced stop air strikes on Yemen in April 21，2015. Saudi Arabia adopted a “tough” strategy while Iran chose the “weak” strategy and Saudi Arabia became the “winner” in the first stage；nevertheless，these two states took the “weak” strategy and there is no “winner” in the second stage. According this analysis，we can find out Iran adopted an opportunistic attitude towards the Yemen civil war，and Saudi Arabia has a pragmatic logic behind its strategy. This paper can help to grasp the situations and future of Yemen civil war more accurately and may provide some inspiration for us to understand the strategic interactions between external powers on the internal conflict of a third country.

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