中国经济增长质量分析与展望

Abstract:This paper proposes a new method to estimate the indicator of economic growth quality，which is based on the two dimensions，economic growth fundamentals and social achievements respectively. In 1992-2016，the quality of China’s provincial economic rose in volatility，with four complete cycles in 1992-2014 and a new round of cyclical fluctuations start at 2015. In recent years，the time span of the fluctuation cycle of economic growth in China has been gradually widened. Combined with the change trend of the economic growth quality index since 2012 and macroeconomic data in the first three quarters of 2017，the quality of China’s economic growth will enter a longer period rise. It is estimated that from 2020 to 2022，the average economic growth quality indicator will rise to 0.55 from 0.49 in 2016. Shanghai will exceed 0.85，achieving the highest economic growth rate. However，the unbalanced distribution of economic growth in the east，middle and west regions cannot change in a short period of time.

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