缅甸政局的变化及对中缅关系的影响

Abstract:Since the transformation in Myanmar in 2010，Sino-Myanmar relations have been frustrated. How to accurately grasp the change in the situation of Myanmar and courageously break the old situation and creatively open up a new prospect has become the cutting-edge research topic concerning Sino-Myanmar relations. Based on an objective assessment of the current political situation in Myanmar since the transformation，this article outlines the future situation in Myanmar as “big changes” and “small wars” running parallel，and analyzes its impact on Sino-Myanmar bilateral relations，with a view to breading the deadlock in Sino-Myanmar relations. The article argues that the modernization transformation of Myanmar is critical for China’s resolution of the disputes arising around the borderlines and that there are shared opportunities between Myanmar and China. Myanmar new government’s policy on China will remain stable，and the cooperation inertia between China and Myanmar will not immediately disappear. Therefore，China’s policy toward Myanmar should combine firmness of principle with flexibility of strategy and ensure a positive dynamic equilibrium between the two，endeavoring to shape Myanmar as a booster for Chinese diplomacy with neighboring countries.

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