Abstract:Recently,China’s debt problem has aroused widespread concern in academia. According to the statistics from the authority agency,it shows that China’s leverage is rising year by year,and the scale of new debt is also expanding rapidly. At present,China’s debt problem is hard to become a debt crisis in the short term,but it still needs to be treated carefully. The study shows that the characteristics of China’s debt are mainly manifested in four aspects:firstly,the total amount of debt and risk is still under control;secondly,the growth of accumulated debt is rapid;thirdly,the debt of the state-owned enterprises accounts for a high proportion in the debt of non-corporate sector;fourthly,the main concentration of the debt is the real estate,coal,steel and other cyclical industries. These characteristics can not only reflect both the current structure of China’s debt structure,but also arouse our vigilance—the current debt problems in China may bring some risks. The specific risks include following four aspects:firstly,the decline of the asset price will cause the recession of the balance sheet and the banking sector crisis;secondly,rapid deleverage in financial market is likely to lead to the constraint of the liquidity;thirdly,the implicit liabilities and disguised liabilities of the local government will damage the market confidence;fourthly,the ownership will be possible to make the deleverage become higher and higher. If these risks are not prevented ahead of time,then the debt will become the fuse of the economic collapse. Therefore,this paper further discusses the specific countermeasures and reasonable suggestions for China to deal with the debt problem after analyzes deeply about the characteristics of the current Chinese debt and the possible risks.
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