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特朗普当选美国总统后的中美南海互动

作者:叶海林 出版日期:2017年05月 报告页数:12 页 报告大小: 报告字数:9013 字 所属丛书:亚太蓝皮书 所属图书:亚太地区发展报告(2017) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:本文从美国政策走向、中国与美国的互动态势、南海周边相关国家反应等方面分析了美国总统大选之后南海局势的未来演进趋势,认为未来一段时间内,在美国东南亚联盟体系运作不畅的情况下,中美两国围绕所谓“航行自由”问题展开博弈甚至直接对抗的风险明显增加,南海问题的管控难度将进一步加大。

Abstract:The report discussed US’s potential policy towards South China Sea after the presidential election,assessed interactive between US and China in this context,analyzed certain Southeast Asian states’response to US and China confrontation in recent time,based on those study,the report further discuss the possible development of situation on South China Sea. It concluded that in the future,due to unsuccessful maintaining its allian... 展开

Abstract:The report discussed US’s potential policy towards South China Sea after the presidential election,assessed interactive between US and China in this context,analyzed certain Southeast Asian states’response to US and China confrontation in recent time,based on those study,the report further discuss the possible development of situation on South China Sea. It concluded that in the future,due to unsuccessful maintaining its alliance network,US would adopt more aggressive attitude on China’s increasing presence on South China Sea and will take more military operation to deter China in the name of “Freedom of Navigation”. Thus risk of military conflict between US and China will increase and it will be more difficult to manage the possible crises.

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作者简介

叶海林:叶海林,中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员、《南亚研究》编辑部主任、南亚研究中心主任,中国南亚学会秘书长,云南财经大学印度洋研究中心国际战略所所长。