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特朗普政府的亚洲政策及其影响

作者:李向阳 出版日期:2017年05月 报告页数:16 页 报告大小: 报告字数:13374 字 所属丛书:亚太蓝皮书 所属图书:亚太地区发展报告(2017) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:回顾与展望2016~2017年亚太地区的形势,特朗普当选美国总统无疑是最重要的事件。但迄今为止,特朗普政府的对外政策,尤其亚洲政策尚未成型。我们试图从特朗普及其团队所信奉的价值理念入手,分析特朗普政府亚洲政策的选择;进而探讨这种政策选择对亚洲政治安全格局、经济发展模式及其区域合作方向的影响。特朗普的政策理念建立在所谓的犹太—基督教文明及其与此相适应的“开明资本主义”基础之上。美国以往的内外政策,甚至发展模式由于背离了这一基础,造成了美国及整个... 展开

文章摘要:回顾与展望2016~2017年亚太地区的形势,特朗普当选美国总统无疑是最重要的事件。但迄今为止,特朗普政府的对外政策,尤其亚洲政策尚未成型。我们试图从特朗普及其团队所信奉的价值理念入手,分析特朗普政府亚洲政策的选择;进而探讨这种政策选择对亚洲政治安全格局、经济发展模式及其区域合作方向的影响。特朗普的政策理念建立在所谓的犹太—基督教文明及其与此相适应的“开明资本主义”基础之上。美国以往的内外政策,甚至发展模式由于背离了这一基础,造成了美国及整个西方世界的危机。为此,特朗普政府的政策目标是要重建资本主义模式。在这种意义上,以“美国优先”为核心的对外政策绝不是对以往政策的简单调整,而是一次重大的改革。与此相对应,其亚洲政策将可能呈现出下述特征:中美博弈决定未来亚洲政策的导向;以大国关系为重点,以新型的美日同盟为核心构建亚洲同盟体系;以双边自由贸易区协定取代TPP,维护美国与本地区的经济合作关系;不再充当区域公共产品的提供者。这对本地区政治、安全、经济格局的影响将是前所未有的。

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Abstract:Looking back and looking 2016-2017 Asia-Pacific situation,Trump’s election to the US president is undoubtedly the most important event. But so far,the Trump administration’s foreign policy,especially its Asian policy,has not yet been shaped. We try to analyze the choice of Trump administration’s Asian policy from the values of Trump and his team,and then explore the influence of this policy choice on Asian political security p... 展开

Abstract:Looking back and looking 2016-2017 Asia-Pacific situation,Trump’s election to the US president is undoubtedly the most important event. But so far,the Trump administration’s foreign policy,especially its Asian policy,has not yet been shaped. We try to analyze the choice of Trump administration’s Asian policy from the values of Trump and his team,and then explore the influence of this policy choice on Asian political security pattern,economic development model and its regional cooperation direction.Trump’s policy philosophy is based on the so-called enlightened capitalism of the Judeo-Christian West. The United States in the past,domestic and foreign policy,and even the development model because of deviating from this foundation,causing the United States and the entire Western world crisis. To this end,the policy goal of the Trump administration is to rebuild the capitalist model. In this sense,the “America First” as the core of foreign policy is by no means a simple adjustment of the previous policy,but a major reform. Correspondingly,its Asian policy will likely show the following characteristics:Sino-American game will determine the direction of the US Asian policy and implementation path;to build a new Asian alliance system with US-Japan alliance as the core;bilateral trade agreements to replace TPP;no longer serve as a provider of regional public goods. The impact on the political,security and economic landscape of the region will be unprecedented.

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作者简介

李向阳:李向阳,中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院院长,研究员。