中国周边安全形势评估报告（2014～2015）

Abstract:The situations and structure of security in China’s neighborhood are going through important historical adjustments. Generally speaking，the overall stability is being maintained in China’s neighborhood，but the security relations and structure are still complicated and on a process of fluid changes. Therefore，it is difficult to avoid unpredictable and disruptive events and there still exists a possibility of risk escalation. The most important characteristic of the current adjustments and development of the security situations is the new adaptations and interactions occurring in China’s relations with its neighboring countries and the apparent strengthening of China’s initiative and activeness to shape its security environment. Furthermore，three trends deserve close attentions when taking a prospect over the development of the security situations in China’s neighborhood：（1） It is likely to sustain the trend of the overall improvement of China’s relations with major powers in its neighborhood. （2） The hot security issues related to China’s neighborhood，particularly the issues of “the two seas” （the South and East China Seas），will develop in the direction of “stabilizing the overall situation”. However，some individual countries，such as the Philippines，will not change its provocative measures in the short term. （3） The non-traditional security issues，such as the issues related to terrorism and internet security，will remain in a period of high risk，so it is necessary to enhance multilateral coordination and cooperation.

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