全球大宗商品市场的回顾与展望：温和反弹

Abstract:Increasing demand and declining supply has led to most of price indexes of commodities have reached trough in January 2016 and realized steady rebound in the first half of 2016. During the interval from January to July，2016，the price index of all commodities in terms of current dollars has rebounded by 14.3%，and that of crude petroleum，gold，minerals and metals，food，and agriculture raw material has risen by 48.1%，21.9%，15.7%，15.7%，and 6.1% respectively. With the impact of economic restructure，overcapacity obsolete，and the slow down in economic growth，the growth rate of China’s demand on commodity has declined significantly，even recorded minus growth for several commodities. Due to the substantial decline in prices，the value of China’s commodity import in 2015 has decreased by 30.4%，while the quantity of import has risen by 6.7%，and China’s import share has risen to 21.4% with an increase of 1.8 percents. The price index of global commodities will consolidate in the second half of 2016，and will rebound moderately in 2017.It is expected that the average price of crude petroleum will fluctuate at around USD52/barrel，and USD45/barrel in the fourth quarter，and whole year of 2016 respectively，and which will climb at around USD57/barrel in 2017.

收起