英国经济形势分析与预测

Abstract:In contrast with the weak economic recovery in the Eurozone，the UK economy has been showing a trend of robust growth. In 2015，UK economic growth has been stable in spite of a slight decline. But its economic growth is still higher than EU average. Household consumption is one of the main driving forces behind UK economy. Factors such as the increase in the disposable income per capita，the decrease in household savings and taxes contribute a lot to the consumption expansion. The steady increase of business investment，which is stimulated by the reduction in corporation tax rate and business rate as well as the government policies to support financing，is another impetus for the economic growth in the UK. Since the breakout of the global financial crisis，the UK government has been clinging to the fiscal austerity policy. But government consumption plays a limited role in stimulating economic growth. Due to the longstanding trade deficit，net export is a drag on economic growth. Although the UK economy continues to improve and grow steadily，it is also confronted with challenges and risks such as the slow growth in productivity，the continual increase in housing prices，the high government debt，current account imbalances and the vote for leaving the EU. Apart from the economic and financial shock，Brexit will result in the profound transformation in the European Union. The EU will speed up its pace of internal reforms and re-examine the process and mode of European integration.

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