全球大宗商品市场的形势与前景：下跌和企稳

Abstract:The sluggish recovery in advanced economies and substantial slow down in emerging economies including China has led to comprehensive decline in price indexes of commodities in 2015，particularly those of iron ore，agricultural raw materials，precious metals and crude petroleum. Due to the negative effect of overcapacity and economic structure adjustment，the absolute value of China’s imported commodities in fell slightly in 2014，but its share in global imported commodities increased steadily. In 2016，the acceleration in world economic recovery and China’s enhanced adaptability to economic restructure will stimulate the steady growth in demand on commodities，and while Fed’s raising interest rate and the strong US dollar will constitute pressure on prices of commodities. The price index of global commodities will reach trough in 2015，and will rebound slightly in 2016. It is expected that the average price of crude petroleum will fluctuate at around USD50/barrel in 2015，and which will climb at around USD55/barrel in 2016.

收起