2015～2016年世界经济形势分析与展望

Abstract:The global economic growth slowed in 2015，reflecting the bumpy global economic recovery. The continually falling prices of commodities and declining global inflation have increased the deflationary pressure for some economies. The overall employment situation improved moderately，but it varied in different economies. The international trade registered negative growth，but international direct investment picked up moderately. Cross-border mergers and acquisitions have been active and headway has been made in regional cooperation. The financial markets fluctuated drastically and became more interconnected. Global debts remained at historically high levels and their unsustainability brought more risks. The global economic situation is subject to influences of a series of uncertain trends，including whether the effect of the demand management policies in the developed economies can continue，the timing，frequency and strength of the expected interest rate hike by the US Fed，the level of threat posed by excessive global debts to financial stability，whether the trend of growth of the emerging and developing economies declining for five consecutive years can stop and the seriousness of setbacks suffered by policymakers in many countries conducting economic and structural reforms as they constantly face the challenge of interest groups. Moreover，geopolitical changes and natural disasters may also bring negative effects on global economic activities and performance. It is expected that the PPP-based GDP growth of the world economy is 3.0% in 2016 and，if any financial crisis broken out and were highly contagious，it may drop to about 2.0%.

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