全球大宗商品市场的回顾与展望

Abstract:The decline in the global economic growth rate and the expectation on Fed’s exit of quantitative easing（QE） monetary policy，has caused the growth rate of commodity demand moderate and commodity price index decrease，particularly prices of iron ore，agricultural raw materials，precious metals and crude petroleum fell significantly in 2014. Although the rebound in global economy in 2015 will stimulate commodity demand increase，it can’t lead to rise in commodity price index. It is expected that Fed’s end QE at the end of October 2014，and possibly raise the target range for the federal funds rate and stop reinvesting of principal payments from maturing securities in the middle of 2015，will not only constrain global liquidity supply，but also induce the yield of the US dollar assets rise and the US dollar appreciate，and hence commodity price index will decline. In the perspective of long-run，the declining pressure in the price of crude petroleum is relatively large，and that of gold and non-oil commodity is relatively moderate and small respectively. The crude petroleum market will keep weak in 2015，and whose average daily price will fall to below MYM100/barrel，possibly fluctuating at around MYM95 a barrel.

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