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2012年大选:美国政治的变数与走向

作者:孙哲 刁大明 出版日期:2012年05月 报告页数:28 页 报告大小: 报告字数:29988 字 所属丛书:美国蓝皮书 所属图书:美国问题研究报告.2012:美国全...

文章摘要

  2012年是世界大选年,在金融危机的背景下凭借变革承诺而历史性当选的奥巴马将面临巨大的连任挑战,美国政治也将迎来新一轮洗牌。经济复苏缓慢、社会极化、民意抗争、国际领导力相对衰落,构成了奥氏连任之旅上不得不正视的严峻挑战,而如何有效拉动经济与就业当属其谋求连任的关键所在。此外,共和党提名的替代人选以及2010年人口普查后选民结构的变化也为奥巴马的连任制造了一定变数。由于大选政治上升为2012年美国政坛的绝对主题,内政外交等诸议题都将被贴上选举标签,为大选服务,其中涉华议题已呈现出某些被情绪化、工具化炒作的消极态势。从2012年上半年的选举情势上看,奥巴马坐拥在任者优势而更可能获得连任,国会两院则因党派分布正常回摆和“茶党”势力等因素存在双双落入共和党之手的可能性。若这一推测最终实现,美国政坛将在至少未来两年中陷入党争拉锯的分立政府,包括中美关系在内的美国内外政策都将遭遇内耗与牵绊。如何有效加强机制化的交流与沟通,减少选举因素平添的成本,成为2012年中美两国必须处理好的现实问题。

Abstract

  2012 is the election year for the whole world,in which Obama,historically elected with a promise of change during global financial crisis,will face enormous reelection challenges and another round of reshuffle in U.S.politics will come.Slow economic recovery,social polarization,public protest,and decline in world leadership all pose serious and big challenges on Obama's road for reelection,while effectively enhancing economic recovery and employment rate remains the key for issue.Moreover,hopeful Republican presidential candidacy and voters structural changes after 2010 census will also bring uncertainties to the elections.Since elections are elevated to the most important place in U.S.politics in 2012,all domestic and foreign policy issues will be labeled with various election tags.There is a negative tendency for U.S.China policy being irrationally used as an instrument in elections.Regarding election circumstances in the first half year of 2012,Obama is more likely to get reelected with incumbent advantages,while both chambers of Congress are likely to fall into the Republican majority due to normal backswing of partisan distribution and"tea party"influence.If this prediction comes true,U.S.will have a split government with lots of party struggles in next two years.U.S.domestic and foreign policy including U.S.-China relations will confront internal party frictions and tie-downs.How to reduce the additional cost of elections on U.S.-China relations with effectively strengthening institutionalized bilateral exchanges and communications becomes pressing and unavoidable issues for both countries.

作者简介

孙哲:北京市人,现为清华大学国际问题研究所教授、博士生导师。 曾任复旦大学美国研究中心教授、博士生导师、副主任,上海市曙光学者 , 享受国务院政府特殊津贴专家。社会兼职包括国务院台办特聘研究员、中美友协理事、全国青联留学人员联谊会理事、上海市曙光学者、上海国际关系学会理事、复旦大学人权研究中心高级研究员、上海东亚研究所学术委员、解放军外国语学院兼职教授等等。主要研究领域包括比较政治学、美国政治与外交、中美关系与台湾问题。