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中国经济运行分析与展望

作者:王军 出版日期:2010年08月 报告页数:36 页 报告大小: 报告字数:26812 字 所属丛书:CCIEE智库报告 所属图书:中国与世界年中经济分析与展望(2010) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:上半年经济高速增长、物价温和上涨,表明前期国家宏观调控目的基本达到。展望下半年,经济增速将继续维持下行态势;物价上涨高峰可能在7月前后出现,随后通胀压力可能明显减轻;消费有望稳中略升;投资增速继续逐步回落;出口增速可能大幅降低,进口增幅可能持续缩小,贸易顺差规模有加大趋势;信贷增速将继续回落。建议下半年宏观调控总基调为:取向不变,动态优化,审慎调节,防止叠加。为此,应继续实施积极的财政政策,为应对经济出现超预期下行预留必要的支出空间;... 展开

文章摘要:上半年经济高速增长、物价温和上涨,表明前期国家宏观调控目的基本达到。展望下半年,经济增速将继续维持下行态势;物价上涨高峰可能在7月前后出现,随后通胀压力可能明显减轻;消费有望稳中略升;投资增速继续逐步回落;出口增速可能大幅降低,进口增幅可能持续缩小,贸易顺差规模有加大趋势;信贷增速将继续回落。建议下半年宏观调控总基调为:取向不变,动态优化,审慎调节,防止叠加。为此,应继续实施积极的财政政策,为应对经济出现超预期下行预留必要的支出空间;继续实施适度宽松的货币政策,增强灵活性和针对性,使之回归常态;围绕转变发展方式、调整经济结构,出台一系列精准调控的政策措施,把加快发展方式转变、调整经济结构作为宏观调控的核心,深化有利于发展方式转变的重大改革,落实好已出台的各项政策,审慎出台新的调控措施,防止多项政策叠加的负面影响。

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Abstract:>First half of 2010,economy grew rapidly,CPI increased moderately,indicating that the basic purpose of macro-control to achieve.Looking in the second half,economic growth will continue to maintain the downward trend;price peak may occur in July,followed by inflationary pressures may be significantly reduced;consumption is expected slight increase;investment growth continues to come down gradually;export growth may be greatly ... 展开

Abstract:>First half of 2010,economy grew rapidly,CPI increased moderately,indicating that the basic purpose of macro-control to achieve.Looking in the second half,economic growth will continue to maintain the downward trend;price peak may occur in July,followed by inflationary pressures may be significantly reduced;consumption is expected slight increase;investment growth continues to come down gradually;export growth may be greatly reduced,Import growth is likely continued to decline,the trade surplus increase;credit growth will continue to fall.General keynote of the second half of macro-control proposals are:Orientation constant,dynamic optimization,time-trial conditioning,to prevent overlapping.Therefore,we should continue to implement the active fiscal policy,in response to economic down-than-expected expenditure reserve the necessary space;Continue a moderately easy monetary policy,increase flexibility,return to normal;In order to achieve the aim of the changing mode of development,the adjustment of economic structure,introduced a series of precise control policies and measures,the acceleration changes in development mode,adjust the economic structure,deepen major reforms,improve policies,carefully put new regulatory measures to prevent the negative effects of superposition of a number of policies.

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作者简介

王军:王军,中国国际经济交流中心。