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论朝鲜的不对称威慑战略

作者:申韬 所属图书:韩国研究论丛 第二十六辑(2013年第二辑) 图书作者:复旦大学韩国研究中心 出版时间:2013年12月
报告字数:16576字 报告页数:15页

文章摘要:冷战结束以来,限于自身的实力,不对称威慑战略逐渐成为朝鲜恢复半岛权力平衡和保障其政治体制延续的重要手段。朝鲜的不对称威慑战略以发展核武器和远程导弹、火炮及特种部队等一些不对称作战能力为后盾,以战争边缘策略为重要特征。其目的有两个:一个是遏制韩美两国的军事威胁,防止可能爆发的针对朝鲜的战争;另一个是用战争边缘策略展示朝鲜不对称威慑的意志和决心,通过制造可控的战争风险迫使韩美作出让步。朝鲜在不对称威慑战略中过度使用战争边缘策略对东北亚地区... 展开

文章摘要:冷战结束以来,限于自身的实力,不对称威慑战略逐渐成为朝鲜恢复半岛权力平衡和保障其政治体制延续的重要手段。朝鲜的不对称威慑战略以发展核武器和远程导弹、火炮及特种部队等一些不对称作战能力为后盾,以战争边缘策略为重要特征。其目的有两个:一个是遏制韩美两国的军事威胁,防止可能爆发的针对朝鲜的战争;另一个是用战争边缘策略展示朝鲜不对称威慑的意志和决心,通过制造可控的战争风险迫使韩美作出让步。朝鲜在不对称威慑战略中过度使用战争边缘策略对东北亚地区安全与稳定的威胁极大,而且伴随着朝鲜核技术的发展,一个以核威慑为主要内容的不对称威慑战略将给这一地区国家的和平与发展带来更大的压力。

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Abstract:After the end of the Cold War,subject to the country’s own strength,asymmetrical deterrence strategy gradually becomes an important means for North Korea to resume the power balance on the Korea Peninsula and ensure the continuation of the political system.North Korea’s asymmetrical deterrence strategy is dependent upon developing some asymmetrical military capabilities,such as nuclear weapon,long-range ballistic missile,artill... 展开

Abstract:After the end of the Cold War,subject to the country’s own strength,asymmetrical deterrence strategy gradually becomes an important means for North Korea to resume the power balance on the Korea Peninsula and ensure the continuation of the political system.North Korea’s asymmetrical deterrence strategy is dependent upon developing some asymmetrical military capabilities,such as nuclear weapon,long-range ballistic missile,artillery system and special operations forces,and is chiefly characterized by brinkmanship. There are two objectives of the asymmetrical deterrence strategy:one is to deter possible wars provoked by South Korea and the United States against the DPRK,the other is to demonstrate North Korea’s determination and will toward asymmetrical deterrence by means of the brinkmanship,and force South Korea and the United States to make concession by creating controllable war risks. The threat from North Korea’s overuse of brinkmanship is dangerous for the Northeast Asia region,and with the development of North Korea’s nuclear engineering and technology,North Korea’s asymmetrical deterrence strategy characterized by nuclear deterrence will put much more pressure on the peace and development of Northeast Asian countries.

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作者简介

申韬:申韬,辽宁大学国际关系学院硕士研究生。主要研究方向:东北亚地区安全问题,俄罗斯政治与外交。

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