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伊朗的现状与发展趋势

作者:王凤 出版日期:2013年09月 报告页数:19 页 报告大小: 报告字数:17765 字 所属丛书:上海合作组织黄皮书 所属图书:上海合作组织发展报告(2013) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2012年,伊朗最高精神领袖哈梅内伊支持的保守阵营在议会选举中获胜。内贾德保守联盟政治地位进一步下降,与前者的矛盾和紧张关系日益发展。与此同时,改革派力量也遭到进一步弹压,哈梅内伊保守阵营力保2013年总统选举如愿举行。一年来,欧美对伊朗实施了新一轮制裁,首次涉及石油禁运,并具有多边影响。伊朗未能未雨绸缪,应对乏力,经济大幅滑坡。此外,伊核问题仍然牵动着伊朗和上合组织神经。一年来伊朗先后与六国进行了四次核谈,但未取得进展。中俄以及上合组织其他... 展开

文章摘要:2012年,伊朗最高精神领袖哈梅内伊支持的保守阵营在议会选举中获胜。内贾德保守联盟政治地位进一步下降,与前者的矛盾和紧张关系日益发展。与此同时,改革派力量也遭到进一步弹压,哈梅内伊保守阵营力保2013年总统选举如愿举行。一年来,欧美对伊朗实施了新一轮制裁,首次涉及石油禁运,并具有多边影响。伊朗未能未雨绸缪,应对乏力,经济大幅滑坡。此外,伊核问题仍然牵动着伊朗和上合组织神经。一年来伊朗先后与六国进行了四次核谈,但未取得进展。中俄以及上合组织其他成员的劝和促谈,为核谈顺利举行发挥了重要作用。伊朗希望继续加强与上合组织的合作,上合组织则主张遵守联合国有关决议,反对任何单边制裁,但并未同意伊朗入会申请。

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Abstract:The conservative groups,close to the supreme leader,Ali Khamenei has defeated the confrontational camp backed by the president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,and won the parliamentary election in 2012. This has widen the divisions between the two sides and further hindered the policy implementation. Meanwhile,the supreme leader has prepared and managed the 2013 president election,including sidelining the reformist camp and intervening to support... 展开

Abstract:The conservative groups,close to the supreme leader,Ali Khamenei has defeated the confrontational camp backed by the president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,and won the parliamentary election in 2012. This has widen the divisions between the two sides and further hindered the policy implementation. Meanwhile,the supreme leader has prepared and managed the 2013 president election,including sidelining the reformist camp and intervening to support a candidate of his choosing. In addition,the GDP growth has been held back by the new and stricter sanctions including the oil embargo imposed by the US and the EU,although successive measures have been taken by Iran to meet these challenges. As both sides appear keen to avoid an escalation,in particularly with the mediation by three members of SCO,four times of negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 have resumed. Iran hopes to further improve its cooperation with the SCO as stated by president Ahmadinejad in the 12th summit meeting of SCO. The SCO supports to observe the former UN resolutions regarding Iranian nuclear issues,and opposes the unilateral sanctions. However,Russia and China have refused the application of Iran for membership of SCO as before.

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作者简介

王凤:1968年2月出生,1995年7月获西北大学世界近现代史专业硕士学位,2001年赴美国普林斯顿大学近东研究系进修。哲学博士,副研究员,现任中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所(中国非洲研究院)国际关系室主任、学术委员会委员、硕士生导师。2010年毕业于中国社会科学院世界宗教研究所,获博士学位。1995年起到中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所工作至今,主要从事伊斯兰教、中东国际关系、伊朗和阿富汗问题研究。出版《列国志·阿富汗》(2007年版),发表《十二伊玛目派传统政治思想的演进及其根源》《什叶派“伊玛目隐遁”教义的成因解析》《十二伊玛目支派初期的政治思想研究》《中东剧变与伊斯兰主义发展趋势初探——以埃及穆斯林兄弟会和突尼斯伊斯兰复兴党为例》《历史转折与阿富汗塔利班的选择》《阿富汗塔利班重组及其挑战》等学术论文。