2025年中国债券市场发展回顾与展望

Abstract:The bond market continued its bullish trend in 2024，primarily driven by liquidity and institution allocation. Weak domestic demand and subdued prices remain the main economic challenges. In terms of monetary policy，the central bank is injecting funds through measures like reserve requirement ratio cuts and bond purchases. Looking ahead to 2025，global demand may peak and decline，with uncertainties arising from U.S. tariff policies. Economic growth will rely on domestic demand and government-led investments. Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative，with further reductions in policy rates. Fiscal policy is expected to see a higher deficit ratio and an increase in the issuance of government bonds. For bond market investment strategies，the rate bond investors need to prioritize strategy stability，while focusing on duration in municipal and industrial bonds are crucial for credit bonds. Characterized by tight supply dynamics，the convertible bond has its own unique allocation value.

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