2025年全球和中国宏观经济环境分析与展望

Abstract:In 2024，the world economy slowly recovered amidst fluctuations，while China’s economy faced increasing external pressures and mounting internal difficulties and challenges，urgently requiring efforts to boost domestic demand. Looking ahead to 2025，there remains uncertainty regarding the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve，and Trump 2.0 is expected to significantly exacerbate global economic fragmentation. It is anticipated that the US economy may experience a soft landing，with weak recoveries in Europe and Japan，and further divergences in the performance of emerging economies. Faced with a complex and volatile external environment，as well as various difficulties and challenges in internal economic operations，especially the potential adverse impacts of Trump 2.0，China’s macroeconomic policies will embark on a cycle of coordinated fiscal and monetary efforts for the first time since 2010. Under the boost provided by these policies，and assuming an optimistic scenario，the economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of around 5.0% in 2025.

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