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低利率时代中国投资发展形势及资产配置分析

作者:张志前 所属图书:中国投资发展报告(2025) 图书作者:中国建银投资有限责任公司投资研究院 出版时间:2025年04月 所属丛书:
报告字数:15865字 报告页数:22页

文章摘要:本报告分析了中国进入低利率时代的主要原因以及低利率下资产荒的主要特征,回顾了美国、日本、欧洲等发达经济体不同类型资产在低利率时代的价格走势及投资经验。本报告认为,虽然整体来看各类资产的收益率均呈下降趋势,但下降的幅度和节奏是不一样的,而且同类型的资产在不同国家和地区的表现也不尽相同,这与该国或地区的经济基本面相关。在低利率时代,投资者应遵循“安全性、收益性、流动性”三原则,采取平衡和多元化的投资策略,在保本的基础上追求稳健的收益。本报... 展开

文章摘要:本报告分析了中国进入低利率时代的主要原因以及低利率下资产荒的主要特征,回顾了美国、日本、欧洲等发达经济体不同类型资产在低利率时代的价格走势及投资经验。本报告认为,虽然整体来看各类资产的收益率均呈下降趋势,但下降的幅度和节奏是不一样的,而且同类型的资产在不同国家和地区的表现也不尽相同,这与该国或地区的经济基本面相关。在低利率时代,投资者应遵循“安全性、收益性、流动性”三原则,采取平衡和多元化的投资策略,在保本的基础上追求稳健的收益。本报告最后运用“中国建投投资研究院投资评级模型”对2025年中国股票、债券、私募股权投资、大宗商品、外汇等五大类资产进行投资评级并提出资产配置建议。

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Abstract:The report analyzes the reasons why China has entered the era of low interest rates and the main characteristics of asset scarcity under low interest rates. The report reviews the price trends and investment experiences of different types of assets in countries such as the United States,Japan,and Europe during periods of low interest rates. The report suggests that although the overall returns of various assets are showing a downwar... 展开

Abstract:The report analyzes the reasons why China has entered the era of low interest rates and the main characteristics of asset scarcity under low interest rates. The report reviews the price trends and investment experiences of different types of assets in countries such as the United States,Japan,and Europe during periods of low interest rates. The report suggests that although the overall returns of various assets are showing a downward trend,the performance of each asset is not consistent,and the same asset also performs differently in different countries and regions,which is closely related to the economic fundamentals of that country or region. During periods of low interest rates,investors should follow the three principles of “safety,profitability,and liquidity”,adopt a balanced investment philosophy,and adopt diversified asset allocation strategies. At the end of the report,we used the “JIC Investment Rating Model” to rate five major asset categories in China in 2025,including stocks,bonds,private equity,commodities,and foreign exchange,and provided our investment recommendations.

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作者简介

张志前:张志前,经济学博士,研究员,中国建投投资研究院主任,主要研究方向为宏观经济、货币政策、金融投资、企业战略等。

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