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2023年俄罗斯强力部门的建设与发展

作者:许昌志 所属图书:俄罗斯发展报告(2024) 图书作者:中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所 中国社会科学院俄罗斯研究中心 孙壮志 李中海 张昊琦 出版时间:2025年01月 所属丛书:
报告字数:19026字 报告页数:19页

文章摘要:2023年俄罗斯强力部门面临的内外形势较2022年有所好转。一方面,俄乌冲突呈现长期化、常态化趋势,多数强力部门继续深度参与作战行动,投入大量资源和精力;另一方面,高强度内外压力暴露出制约强力部门建设与发展的深层次问题,倒逼各部门深刻反思、加紧改革,一些久拖未决的难题反而取得突破性进展。特别是俄军改革问题尤为值得关注。虽然绍伊古2012年就任国防部部长后,对2008年以来片面效仿美军的俄军“新面貌”改革予以部分纠偏,但对一些明显不符合俄军实际情况的做... 展开

文章摘要:2023年俄罗斯强力部门面临的内外形势较2022年有所好转。一方面,俄乌冲突呈现长期化、常态化趋势,多数强力部门继续深度参与作战行动,投入大量资源和精力;另一方面,高强度内外压力暴露出制约强力部门建设与发展的深层次问题,倒逼各部门深刻反思、加紧改革,一些久拖未决的难题反而取得突破性进展。特别是俄军改革问题尤为值得关注。虽然绍伊古2012年就任国防部部长后,对2008年以来片面效仿美军的俄军“新面貌”改革予以部分纠偏,但对一些明显不符合俄军实际情况的做法并未痛下决心予以根本扭转,直至俄海军在俄乌冲突中接连遭受重大损失。面对实战检验暴露出的问题,俄高层着手对俄军体制编制进行十余年来最大规模的调整。总体看,在普京总统直接领导下,2023年强力部门基本完成各项任务,有效地维护了国家安全稳定,各方面改革也取得一定成果。但与此同时,俄乌冲突延宕也导致各种不安全不确定因素明显增多,2024年强力部门将面临更多威胁和挑战。

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Abstract:The internal and external situation of the Russian powerful sectors in 2023 is better than that in 2022. On the one hand,the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become protracted and normalized,and most of the powerful sectors continue to participate deeply in combat operations,investing a lot of resources and energy. On the other hand,the high intensity of internal and external pressure has exposed some deep problems restricting the cons... 展开

Abstract:The internal and external situation of the Russian powerful sectors in 2023 is better than that in 2022. On the one hand,the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become protracted and normalized,and most of the powerful sectors continue to participate deeply in combat operations,investing a lot of resources and energy. On the other hand,the high intensity of internal and external pressure has exposed some deep problems restricting the construction and development of powerful sectors,forcing all departments to step up reform,and break through some long-standing problems. In particular,the Russian military reform deserves special attention. Although Shoigu partially corrected the reform of the Russian military,which had unilaterally imitated the US military since 2008 after he became the Minister of Defense in 2012,he did not make up his mind to fundamentally reverse some practices that were obviously inconsistent with the actual situation of the Russian military,thereby letting the Russian Navy suffer heavy losses in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Faced with the problems exposed by actual combat,the Russian top leaders have begun to make the largest-scale adjustment on the Russian military system in the past 10 years. Overall,under the direct leadership of President Putin,the powerful departments have basically completed their tasks,effectively maintained national security and stability,and made certain achievements in various aspects of reform. But at the same time,the prolongation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a significant increase in various unsafe and uncertain factors,and the powerful sectors will face more threats and challenges in 2024.

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作者简介

许昌志:许昌志,中国社会科学院中俄战略协作高端合作智库副秘书长,国务院发展研究中心欧亚社会发展研究所研究员。

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