2024～2025年俄罗斯经济：制裁与通胀

Abstract:Influenced by factors such as increased domestic consumption demand，growth in government defense spending，stabilization of energy and food prices，and successful adjustments in oil export flows，the Russian economy achieved positive growth，with a 3.6% increase in 2023 and growth rates of 4.8% and 3.8% in the first and second quarters of 2024，respectively. However，challenges such as the continuous depreciation of the ruble，persistently high inflation rates，and rising fiscal deficits remain. Looking ahead to the future of the Russian economy，positive factors include strong economic endogenous resilience，robust consumer demand，stable energy and food exports，and increased manufacturing investment. Negative factors include defense spending crowding out private investment，high inflation rates，risks of ruble depreciation，restrictions on technology and equipment access due to US and Western sanctions，insufficient supply of high-end goods，and labor shortages. It is expected that Russia’s economic growth rate will likely reach around 3% in 2024 and drop to about 1% in 2025.

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