Abstract:India’s economy rebounded strongly in FY 2023-2024 against the background of earlier recovery，with real GDP growth rate of 8.2%，the fastest among the world’s major economies. India’s economic prosperity is relatively high，and the Purchasing Managers’ Index （PMI） has been in expansionary range. Inflation is on a declining trend and has fallen below the inflation target. Inflation in rural area is significantly higher than that in urban area，but both inflation rates are on a downward trend. The Wholesale Price Index （WPI） is slowly picking up. Unemployment rate has continued to decline，with male’s unemployment rates significantly lower than that of female. The labor force participation rate reached a record high. The real effective exchange rate of the Indian rupee continued to recover and hit a six-and-a-half year high. The Indian stock market continued its upward trend，and reached record highs. Fiscal policy is actively expanding，and the scale of debt is gradually increasing. Monetary policy remains stable，but the interest rate cuts may be approaching. Going forward，the external factors that will influence the course of the Indian economy include the course of the global economic recovery，the pace and intensity of accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies，the degree of volatility in commodity prices，the level of geopolitical risks，and extreme climate weather；and the internal factors include final consumption expenditures，government investment，services and manufacturing activity，and the trend in inflation rate. Taking all factors into account，this report expects India’s real GDP growth rate to be around 7% in FY2024-2025，and its economy will continue to grow at a high rate in FY2025-2026.
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