2024～2025年欧洲经济：增长复苏，乏善可陈

Abstract:European economic growth stagnated in 2023 and started to recover in the first half of 2024. Headline inflation declined sharply due to the easing of energy price pressures and the ongoing impact of the restrictive monetary policy on the real economy. Despite the increase in real disposable income and the marginal improvement of consumers’ confidence，the impulse from private consumption was still weak. High levels of interest rates，which were responsible for elevated household saving intentions and weaker business investment momentum，continued to weigh heavily on the European economy. To moderate the dragging effect from tight financing conditions，the ECB has conducted its first policy rate cut in five years in June 2024. However，given transmission lags，this won’t deliver a boost before the second half of 2025. Overall，growth will remain subdued in the short term for Europe. The annual average real GDP growth is expected to be 0.4%-0.7% in 2024 and to reach 0.9%-1.2% in 2025.

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