2024～2025年世界经济形势分析与展望

Abstract:After weathering multiple shocks，including the COVID-19 pandemic，geopolitical conflicts，high inflation，and monetary tightening，the global economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience. Global trade is gradually recovering，and the downward trend in international investment is expected to moderate. As inflationary pressures continue to subside，major central banks have embarked on a cycle of interest rate cuts，while fiscal policy stances remain relatively accommodative. These factors suggest that the global economy is poised for a continued，albeit slow，recovery. However，the world economy’s performance is complicated by the interplay of short-term challenges and long-term structural issues. Economic growth momentum is notably insufficient，and downside risks cannot be overlooked. Looking ahead，several factors warrant close attention，including the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy shift，the accelerated restructuring of the global industrial chain，the structural problems faced by the global labor market，artificial intelligence is leading a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial change，the marginal weakening of the role of the World Trade Organization，the U.S. and Western countries’ allegations of China’s “overcapacity”. Considering the various indicators of global economic development and carefully assessing the potential impact of multiple factors，this report projects that the world economy will continue to operate on a medium-to-low growth trajectory in 2025，with an estimated growth rate of around 3.0%. It is crucial to remain vigilant about the possibility of a significant slowdown in global economic growth should there be severe geopolitical turmoil or a further escalation of trade tensions.

收起