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气候临界点与未来风险应对(2023)

作者:王长科 黄磊 周兵 出版日期:2023年11月 报告页数:13 页 报告大小: 报告字数:12401 字 所属丛书:气候变化绿皮书 所属图书:应对气候变化报告(2023) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:气候临界点具有不可逆性和难以预测性,气候临界点之间存在着多米诺骨牌效应。研究发现,当前已有5个气候临界点处于危险区间,已经被突破或者很快就会被突破。这5个危险的气候临界点是格陵兰冰盖崩塌、南极西部冰盖崩塌、北极多年冻土突然解冻、低纬度珊瑚礁消亡、拉布拉多海—副极地对流系统崩溃。另有11个临界点属于有可能被激活的临界点。最新的研究结果表明,青藏高原可能是一个全新的临界要素,并且已经处于被激活状态。为了扭转气候临界点被激活的不利局面,促进全球... 展开

文章摘要:气候临界点具有不可逆性和难以预测性,气候临界点之间存在着多米诺骨牌效应。研究发现,当前已有5个气候临界点处于危险区间,已经被突破或者很快就会被突破。这5个危险的气候临界点是格陵兰冰盖崩塌、南极西部冰盖崩塌、北极多年冻土突然解冻、低纬度珊瑚礁消亡、拉布拉多海—副极地对流系统崩溃。另有11个临界点属于有可能被激活的临界点。最新的研究结果表明,青藏高原可能是一个全新的临界要素,并且已经处于被激活状态。为了扭转气候临界点被激活的不利局面,促进全球气候科学治理,需要全社会快速绿色低碳转型以避免全球气候危机;加大气候变化减缓行动力度,避免温室气体排放反弹;实施转型适应措施,降低气候临界点风险;评估适应政策取得的进展,适时调整适应行动。

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Abstract:Climate tipping points are irreversible and difficult to predict,and there is domino effects between them. One study has found that five tipping points are already in danger zones and have been or will soon be crossed. The five dangerous tipping points are Greenland ice sheet collapse,West Antarctic ice sheet collapse,Boreal permafrost abrupt thaw,Low-latitude coral reefs die-off,and Labrador Sea/subpolar gyre convection collapse... 展开

Abstract:Climate tipping points are irreversible and difficult to predict,and there is domino effects between them. One study has found that five tipping points are already in danger zones and have been or will soon be crossed. The five dangerous tipping points are Greenland ice sheet collapse,West Antarctic ice sheet collapse,Boreal permafrost abrupt thaw,Low-latitude coral reefs die-off,and Labrador Sea/subpolar gyre convection collapse. There are 11 tipping points that may be triggered. A lately research indicates that the Tibetan Plateau may be a completely new tipping element and is already in a triggered state. In order to reverse the unfavorable situation of climate tipping points being triggered and promote the global climate scientific governance,it is urgently necessary for the entire society to undergo an rapid low-carbon transformation to avoid global climate crisis,to strengthen climate change mitigation actions to avoid a rebound in greenhouse gas emissions,to implement transformation adaptation to reduce the risk of climate tipping points,to measure the progress made in adaptation and adjust adaptation actions in time.

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作者简介

王长科:王长科,博士,国家气候中心研究员,研究领域为湿地温室气体排放。

黄磊:黄磊,博士,国家气候中心气候变化战略研究室主任、研究员,研究领域为气候变化应对政策。

周兵:周兵,博士,国家气候中心研究员,中国气象局气候服务首席专家,研究领域为气象服务与季风降水。