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美国对华经济政策转向“去风险”的进程、逻辑与影响

作者:彭博 赵海 出版日期:2023年12月 报告页数:16 页 报告大小: 报告字数:18921 字 所属丛书:国际形势黄皮书 所属图书:全球政治与安全报告(2024) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2023年以来,美国对华经济政策开始由“脱钩”转向“去风险”,并在认知与操作层面与其欧洲和亚太地区盟伴国家形成明显战略共识与政策聚合。美国转向对华“去风险”的逻辑建立在三方面考量基础上,即对其盟伴体系的再巩固、对自身利益的再权衡与对中美战略竞争的再理解。总体而言,美国对华“去风险”政策对世界经济和中国发展产生较大负面影响,表现为进一步加剧全球经济的碎片化、加速中美战略竞争的向下螺旋趋势,以及阻碍我国向全球价值链上游攀升。对此,我国继续保持... 展开

文章摘要:2023年以来,美国对华经济政策开始由“脱钩”转向“去风险”,并在认知与操作层面与其欧洲和亚太地区盟伴国家形成明显战略共识与政策聚合。美国转向对华“去风险”的逻辑建立在三方面考量基础上,即对其盟伴体系的再巩固、对自身利益的再权衡与对中美战略竞争的再理解。总体而言,美国对华“去风险”政策对世界经济和中国发展产生较大负面影响,表现为进一步加剧全球经济的碎片化、加速中美战略竞争的向下螺旋趋势,以及阻碍我国向全球价值链上游攀升。对此,我国继续保持战略定力,在关键技术领域深耕细作,建立自主可控的科学技术体系;积极参与重塑“去风险”话语叙事的进程,以全球性风险替代所谓“中国风险”作为“去风险”的核心内涵;加快构建新发展格局,实现供应链的多元化布局。

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Abstract:Since 2023,the U.S. economic policy toward China has begun to shift from “decoupling” to “de-risking” and has formed an obvious strategic consensus and policy convergence with its European and Asia-Pacific allies at the cognitive and operational levels. The logic of the U.S. strategic transformation toward China is based on three considerations,namely,the re-consolidation of its alliance partner system,the re-weighing of its o... 展开

Abstract:Since 2023,the U.S. economic policy toward China has begun to shift from “decoupling” to “de-risking” and has formed an obvious strategic consensus and policy convergence with its European and Asia-Pacific allies at the cognitive and operational levels. The logic of the U.S. strategic transformation toward China is based on three considerations,namely,the re-consolidation of its alliance partner system,the re-weighing of its own interests,and the re-understanding of the strategic competition between China and the U.S. Overall,the U.S. “de-risking” policy toward China has had a greater negative impact on the world economy and China’s development,manifesting itself in further exacerbating the fragmentation of the global economy,accelerating the downward spiral trend of China-U.S. strategic competition,and hindering China’s climbing up in the global value chain. In this regard,China should maintain its strategic focus,work intensively in key technological fields,and establish an independent and controllable science and technology system;China should actively participate in the process of reshaping the “de-risking” discourse narrative and replaces the so-called “China risk” with global risks as the core connotation of “de-risking”;China should accelerate the construction of a new development pattern and realize a diversified layout of the supply chain.

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作者简介

彭博:彭博,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,主要研究方向为国际安全、北欧政治经济。

赵海:赵海,中国社会科学院国家全球战略智库国际政治研究部主任,主要研究方向为美国政治与中美关系、国际安全合作、东亚政治经济。