2021年哈萨克斯坦面临的风险评估

Abstract:The risk for Kazakhstan in 2021 can be assessed in three mainaspects，namely geopolitical，regional and domestic factors. The geopolitical factors include：COVID-19 andthe biological threat theory that it generated；the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan；the Blue Dot Network plan；the increased tensions between the US and the West and Russia；the sanctions policy of the EU countries against Kazakhstan；and the US sanctions policyagainst Russia. Regional factors mainly include：the certain impact of cross-border threatson the security of Central Asian countries；the cooperation of Central Asian countries withregional security institutions；the presidency of the Eurasian Economic Union；thecooperation of Central Asian countries with the United States；the Organization of TurkicStates；and the political development patterns of Central Asian countries. Domestic factorsinclude：the increased confrontation between elites and various power groups；theparliamentary elections；the “youth population expansion”；the uncontrolled internalpopulation movements；the extremist propaganda on social networks；the rising religioussentiment among the population；and the increase in crimes of an extremist and terroristnature.

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