合肥市“十四五”时期人口预测与发展趋势分析

Abstract:Demographic development is a prerequisite for sustainable economic development，therefore，accurately predicting its future development is conducive to the formulation of regional and national development plans and population policies. Based on existing demographic data of Hefei，this paper uses linear regression method，trend extrapolation method，urban travel radius model，SPSS software，demographic forecasting software，etc. to predict and analyze the population development trend of Hefei during the 14th Five-year Plan period. The forecast results show that by 2025，registered population of Hefei is expected to reach 8.194 million. Taking the average of the final results of the two prediction models，permanent population of Hefei will reach 10.399 million in 2025. The population structure of Hefei will transform into an aging society，with downtown population exceeding 5 million. The subsequent difficulties and challenges will lead to a big gap between population development and developmental needs in Hefei，an overall tightening of environmental capacity for the population，increased pressure on basic public services，and increased adverse effects of population aging. To address those issues，the following suggestions and countermeasures are offered：improving strategies for population development，comprehensively raising the general quality of the population，and actively coping with population aging.

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