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从军人政权走向混合政体:1988年以来的缅甸政治转型研究

作者:李晨阳 孔鹏 所属图书:云大地区研究 2020年第1期(总第3期) 图书作者:卢光盛 出版时间:2020年09月
报告字数:28437字 报告页数:28页

文章摘要:缅甸是二战后军人执政时间最长的国家,累计超过了半个世纪。1988年以来,缅甸开始了新一轮政治转型,2011年军队向民选政府交权,2015年大选后缅甸实现了政党轮替。从经济发展水平、社会结构、政治文化和政党成熟度等条件看,缅甸的政治转型存在先天不足。然而,在民族国家构建任务没有完成的背景下,缅甸依然平稳地实现了政体转换和政党轮替,避免了大规模的流血冲突和社会动荡,其政治转型在发展中国家政治发展中具有很强的独特性。研究发现,缅甸军队1988年9月再度掌权... 展开

文章摘要:缅甸是二战后军人执政时间最长的国家,累计超过了半个世纪。1988年以来,缅甸开始了新一轮政治转型,2011年军队向民选政府交权,2015年大选后缅甸实现了政党轮替。从经济发展水平、社会结构、政治文化和政党成熟度等条件看,缅甸的政治转型存在先天不足。然而,在民族国家构建任务没有完成的背景下,缅甸依然平稳地实现了政体转换和政党轮替,避免了大规模的流血冲突和社会动荡,其政治转型在发展中国家政治发展中具有很强的独特性。研究发现,缅甸军队1988年9月再度掌权后,就在积极探索威权政体的转型路径。通过量身打造2008年宪法和开展竞争性选举,缅甸军队初步将军人统治的绝对权威转变为宪政权威,并成功将反对派民盟吸纳到转型进程之中。缅甸自上而下的转型方式和政治精英间的良性互动,保证了政治转型过程的总体平稳,提高了转型合法性和国内外认可度。今后,民族国家构建、军队角色转变、领袖精英互动及经济社会结构的变化将对缅甸政治转型的巩固构成持续挑战,兼具民主与威权特征的混合型政体将在缅甸存在较长一段时间。

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Abstract:Myanmar is the country with the longest military rule after World War II for more than half a century.Since 1988,Myanmar has started a new round of political transition.In 2011,the military handed over national power to the democratically elected government.After the 2015 general election,Myanmar achieved ruling party rotation.Viewed from the perspectives of economic development level,social structure,political culture and party ... 展开

Abstract:Myanmar is the country with the longest military rule after World War II for more than half a century.Since 1988,Myanmar has started a new round of political transition.In 2011,the military handed over national power to the democratically elected government.After the 2015 general election,Myanmar achieved ruling party rotation.Viewed from the perspectives of economic development level,social structure,political culture and party maturity,Myanmar's political transition has inherent deficiencies.However,even facing ethnic-religious conflicts and unfinished task of nation-state construction,Myanmar has steadily achieved the transition for political system and party rotation without large-scale bloodshed and social unrest.That makes Myanmar's political transition very unique among developing countries’ national political development.This study found that after regained power in September 1988,the Myanmar military was actively exploring path for authoritarian regime transition.By tailoring the 2008 Constitution and conducting competitiveelection,the Myanmar military initially transformed the absolute authority of military ruling into constitutional authority,and successfully absorbed the opposition party National League for Democracy (NLD) into the political transition process.The top-down transition and the benign interaction among political elites ensure the overall stability of Myanmar's political transition,and increased the legitimacy of the transition at home and abroad.In the future,the construction of nation-state,the role transformation of the military,the interaction among national leaders and elites,and the changes of economic and social structure will continue to challenge the consolidation of Myanmar's political transition;while a hybrid regime with both democratic and authoritarian characteristics will exist in Myanmar for a long time.

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作者简介

李晨阳:李晨阳,云南大学周边外交研究中心、外国语学院、缅甸研究院研究员。

孔鹏:孔鹏,云南大学缅甸研究院副研究员。

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