广东与“一带一路”产业合作：贸易投资的竞合联动分析

Abstract:Guangdong province integrates into global value chain system demanding the inquiry of production cooperation and analyzing complementarity and competitiveness in trade and investment on Guangdong and countries along “One Belt and One Road”.Based on establishing PVAR model，this paper develops and calculates export similarity index and trade intensity index，elaborating the evolution of complementarity and competitiveness of production cooperation from 1995 to 2014，to lucubrate co-movement in trade and investment for Guangdong and countries along the “One Belt and One Road”.The results show that Guangdong are in most fierce competition with ASEAN and South Asia but in highest complementarity with Central Asia and West Asia in trade and investment.Co-movement exists in trade and investment on Guangzhou and countries along “One Belt and One Road”.Compared with increasing trade，investment moves in faster rate.Productivity in lag of trade and investment have a positive influence on the current trade or investment.Trade and investment on production cooperation are positively correlated with proposal of The Belt and Road Initiative which has greater impact on investment，compared with trade.

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