2020年世界能源发展现状及未来趋势

Abstract:This paper first reviews the overall development of world oil，natural gas，coal，renewable energy and electricity in 2020，analyzes the factors affecting the decline of oil reserves，the decline of natural gas production，the fluctuation of coal consumption，the decline of electricity consumption，and highlights the global economic recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is imbalance between supply and demand in the global oil market caused by the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. On this basis，it is predicted that the world oil demand will increase，push up oil prices and increase non fossil energy consumption in 2021. Global natural gas supply and demand is growing steadily，with Asian demand as the main driving force. Coal demand recovered slowly and rebounded slightly. The development and utilization of renewable energy will occupy a larger share. Systematic carbon reduction and decarbonization are the main lines to achieve the carbon goal. Finally，based on the analysis of the current situation of China’s energy development，it is considered that the coal consumption structure will be continuously optimized and the quality of the supply system will be significantly improved. The supply and demand of power market is stable，and the installed capacity of power generation is increasing. In the future，China’s energy industry will face challenges under the constraints of carbon peak and carbon neutralization. The recovery and treatment of solar power generation equipment will usher in a window period. The development of Western energy industry will improve the possibility and opportunity of carbon trading.

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