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倾斜的天平:“后西方”时代中德关系面临的机遇与挑战

作者:赵柯 李刚 出版日期:2017年06月 报告页数:13 页 报告大小: 报告字数:12902 字 所属丛书:德国蓝皮书 所属图书:德国发展报告(2017) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:德国外交政策的制定是两股力量达到均衡状态的结果:经济全球化与欧洲一体化。“后西方”时代的到来一方面加速了欧盟内部力量格局的变革,“德国的欧洲”越来越成为一种现实;另一方面,“盟主”的地位使德国在维护其全球经济竞争力与推进欧洲一体化之间保持的平衡需要重新校正,在面临自身经济利益与欧盟的团结和信誉之间的权衡时,出于“领导欧洲”的考量,“天平”不可避免地更多要向后者“倾斜”,德国外交政策正加速“欧盟化”,拒绝与欧盟之外的重要贸易伙伴建立“特... 展开

文章摘要:德国外交政策的制定是两股力量达到均衡状态的结果:经济全球化与欧洲一体化。“后西方”时代的到来一方面加速了欧盟内部力量格局的变革,“德国的欧洲”越来越成为一种现实;另一方面,“盟主”的地位使德国在维护其全球经济竞争力与推进欧洲一体化之间保持的平衡需要重新校正,在面临自身经济利益与欧盟的团结和信誉之间的权衡时,出于“领导欧洲”的考量,“天平”不可避免地更多要向后者“倾斜”,德国外交政策正加速“欧盟化”,拒绝与欧盟之外的重要贸易伙伴建立“特殊关系”的诱惑。这意味着地区安全、人权保护、公平贸易等欧盟层面的关切在德国对外政策中的权重将越来越大,德国传统上以经济利益为主轴的务实对华政策会逐渐改弦更张,这对于中国而言是一个真实的挑战。但是,这也为中国突破和拓宽中德利益的固有边界,以德国为杠杆伙伴国,塑造一个符合中国利益的欧盟带来了机遇。

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Abstract:German foreign policy is determined by two forces:economic globalization and European integration. On the one hand,the arrival of the post-West era accelerates a power shift inside the EU,and a German Europe becomes more and more a reality;on the other hand,because of its leading role,it is difficult for Germany to keep a balance between maintaining its global economic competitiveness and promoting European integration as before... 展开

Abstract:German foreign policy is determined by two forces:economic globalization and European integration. On the one hand,the arrival of the post-West era accelerates a power shift inside the EU,and a German Europe becomes more and more a reality;on the other hand,because of its leading role,it is difficult for Germany to keep a balance between maintaining its global economic competitiveness and promoting European integration as before. Germany must find a new equilibrium between its own economic interests in the global market and the unity and credibility of the EU. This will lead to a Europeanization of Germany’s foreign policy,and as a consequence,it will be reluctant to establish special relationships with important trading partners outside the EU. German foreign policy will focus more on European concerns including regional security,protection of human rights and fair trade. Given these new circumstances,Germany’s traditional pragmatic China policy that is mostly based on its economic interests is changing. That is a real challenge for China.

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作者简介

赵柯:赵柯,博士,中共中央党校国际战略研究院助理研究员。

李刚:李刚,中共中央党校研究生院硕士研究生。