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2020年俄罗斯财政金融形势及政策方向

作者:丁超 所属图书:俄罗斯发展报告(2021) 图书作者:孙壮志 李中海 张昊琦 出版时间:2021年07月 所属丛书:
报告字数:14753字 报告页数:16页

文章摘要:财政货币政策在俄罗斯抗疫反危机及经济重启过程中起到关键性作用。2020年俄财政部通过预算规则及其内置的反周期稳定机制和突破规则限制的额外预算刺激,为实施抗疫反危机政策提供了充分的资金。俄罗斯银行则通过放宽货币信贷条件和监管松绑,稳定了企业和公民信心,刺激了消费市场复苏。从全年来看,油价暴跌使油气收入占比进一步下滑,俄罗斯联邦各级预算虽均陷入赤字状态,但国家福利基金的充裕以及联邦政府对地区预算的扶持消除了发生系统性财政风险的可能。尽管2020年... 展开

文章摘要:财政货币政策在俄罗斯抗疫反危机及经济重启过程中起到关键性作用。2020年俄财政部通过预算规则及其内置的反周期稳定机制和突破规则限制的额外预算刺激,为实施抗疫反危机政策提供了充分的资金。俄罗斯银行则通过放宽货币信贷条件和监管松绑,稳定了企业和公民信心,刺激了消费市场复苏。从全年来看,油价暴跌使油气收入占比进一步下滑,俄罗斯联邦各级预算虽均陷入赤字状态,但国家福利基金的充裕以及联邦政府对地区预算的扶持消除了发生系统性财政风险的可能。尽管2020年食品价格上涨推高了通胀水平,企业利润和公民可支配收入下滑,但银行系统的存款和贷款均有所增长,贷款质量也没有明显恶化。关键利率下调及卢布贬值等导致俄罗斯金融账户赤字,资本外流严重,但黄金价格高企弥补了国际储备的损失。在经济重启过程中,俄罗斯将遵循财政整顿的逻辑,在增收节支的基础上挖掘投资潜力,并注重经济的结构性调整。货币政策依然致力于维稳,同时强化与财政政策的协调。

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Abstract:Fiscal and monetary policies play a key role in fighting the epidemic and resuming economy for Russia. In 2020,the Russian Ministry of Finance reformed its budget rules which has built-in counter-cyclical stabilization mechanism and additional budget stimulus,providing sufficient funds for the implementation of anti-epidemic and anti-crisis policies. The Bank of Russia has restored confidence in enterprises and citizens and has stim... 展开

Abstract:Fiscal and monetary policies play a key role in fighting the epidemic and resuming economy for Russia. In 2020,the Russian Ministry of Finance reformed its budget rules which has built-in counter-cyclical stabilization mechanism and additional budget stimulus,providing sufficient funds for the implementation of anti-epidemic and anti-crisis policies. The Bank of Russia has restored confidence in enterprises and citizens and has stimulated the recovery of the consumer market by relaxing monetary and credit conditions and deregulation. In 2020,the oil price plunge has further reduced its proportion in revenues. Although the budgets at all levels of the Russian Federation are in deficit,the sufficiency of the State Welfare Fund and the federal government’s support for regional budgets has eliminated the possibility of systemic fiscal risks. Although the rise in food prices in 2020 has pushed up inflation and corporate profits and citizens’ disposable income have fallen,deposits and loans in the banking system have increased and the loan quality has not deteriorated significantly. The reduction in key interest rates and the devaluation of ruble has led to Russia’s financial account deficits and serious capital outflows. However,the high price of gold has made up for the loss of international reserves. In the process of economic restart,Russia will follow the logic of fiscal consolidation,tap investment potential on the basis of increasing revenue and reducing expenditures,and pay attention to structural adjustment of the economy. The monetary policy will commit to maintaining stability while strengthening coordination with fiscal policy.

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作者简介

丁超:丁超,中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所俄罗斯经济研究室助理研究员。

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