国际贸易形势回顾与展望
文章摘要:2011年上半年,全球贸易量和贸易额均高于上年同期水平,贸易量保持了7.15%的增长率;下半年,预计国际货物贸易量增长会进一步放缓,同比增长4.48%。由于世界经济下行风险依然存在,我们预测,2011年全年国际贸易量可能增长5.3%左右,略低于世界贸易组织最近的预测水平(5.8%)。此外,随着全球生产网络的盛行,特惠贸易协定正朝着深度一体化方向发展。
Abstract:In the first half of 2011,global trade volume and value were all higher than the level a year earlier,and the average growth of trade volume remained at 7.15 percent;In the second half of 2011,we expect the growth of international trade in goods to slow down,with the growth rate to be 4.48 percent.As the downturn risk of world economy remains,according to our estimation,the annual world merchandise trade growth in 2011 could only be m... 展开