世界石油市场回顾与展望

Abstract:In 2019，the slowing global economic growth and Sino-U.S.Trade frictions have led to a decline in global oil demand and increased downward pressure on oil prices，the OPEC+Alliance production cut agreement has played a key role in supporting oil prices，and the global oil production is nearly same as that of previous year. Frequent emergencies in the Middle East，and U.S.sanctions on Iran and Venezuela have raised concerns about the safety of crude oil supply and exacerbated fluctuations in the international oil prices. However，as the oil market continues to oversupply，the impact of geopolitics risk on the oil prices has weakened，and the fluctuation range of oil prices has narrowed compared to the previous year. International oil prices have risen first and then declined in 2019，and the price of Brent crude petroleum is $64/barrel，down 9.9% from the previous year. In 2020，the epidemic of the coronavirus in China，Europe and the United States，and even in the whole world，will cause the global economy to fall into a deep recession and the world’s crude oil demand fall sharply. The price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia has exacerbated the oversupply situation in the international oil market，causing international oil prices to plummet. Brent crude oil prices have fallen to the low level of $27.0/barrel. It is expected that the epidemic situation of the coronavirus will be suppressed in the second half of 2020，and the world economy and crude oil demand will be partially rebounded. It is also expected that daily global demand for crude petroleum may fall by 3 million barrels in the first half of 2020，then remain the same as that of the previous year in the second half of 2020，decrease by 1.5 million barrels in the whole year of 2020，and increase by 100 Million barrels in 2021. The price of Brent crude oil will fluctuate around $40/barrel in 2020，and it may rebound to around $55/barrel in 2021.

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