金融自由化改革模式选择与风险防范：国际经验与启示

Abstract:The reform of capital account liberalization，exchange rate liberalization and interest rate liberalization are three core contents of the China’s de facto major financial liberalization reform. This paper reviewed the domestic and foreign academics，from theoretical perspectives，on the choices of capital account liberalization，exchange rate liberalization，and interest rate liberalization reforms at first. Then，we summarize the model selection of these three financial liberalization reforms in typical countries （regions） around the world and the different types and degrees of crisis encountered in the process of reform. Based on the above analysis，this research uses the binary response panel data model with country-specific data to empirically test the effect and its degree of different reform completion sequences on the crisis outbreak. Policy suggestions are proposed in the last section，such as China should adopt the gradual advancement models according to the order of interest rate liberalization，exchange rate liberalization，and the entirely completion of capital liberalization，to carry out financial liberalization reforms.

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