北约框架下波罗的海三国与俄罗斯的安全关系

Abstract:After Estonia，Latvia and Lithuania （the Baltic states） joined NATO，Russia’s military influence on these three countries declined. Because of the important geopolitical status of the Baltic states and the security implications of NATO’s eastward expansion，Russia has strengthened its military presence in Kaliningrad and the Baltic Sea. This move further prompted NATO to strengthen the defense of its eastern flank，which inevitably had an negative impact on the security relations between Russia and the Baltic states. Especially after the Ukrainian crisis，the Baltic states have regarded Russia a threat to their national security. This article aims to clarify the development of security relations between the Baltic states and Russia following the Ukrainian crisis and to assess their current security relations based on reports and experts’ comments on some of the most important events of 2018-such as Putin starting his fourth presidential term；the “Zapad-2018” and “Trident Juncture-2018” military exercises；the meeting between the leaders of the Baltic states and Donald Trump；the poisoning of former Russian spy （Sergei Skripal）；the Kerch Strait incident and the US’ withdrawal from the “Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty”. It is apparent that Russia and the Baltic states are locked in a relatively tense confrontation，and that the security relationship is unlikely to improve in the near future.

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